27.9.08

Who Is Better? Roloson or Deslauriers?

In Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers' only preseason start so far this season he looked impressive. On the front page of The Edmonton Journal it read something like, Oilers goalie puts together star performance. He has yet to play a single second of a regular season NHL game but I firmly believe he's a legit backup. Roloson and his $3.66M cap hit is unattractive not only to us but to every other team in the league.

But after Deslauriers' impressive preseason performance, I started thinking, is Deslauriers better than Roloson?

He is the future of Oilers goaltending (with Devan Dubnyk) but many dub him has a career backup. He's only 24 years-old and I'm sold that he's already a backup. So if he continues to grow, he could become a legit starter once Garon doesn't have any gas left in the tank.

Roloson is the past of Oilers goaltending. He lead the Oilers to a Cup Finals appearance but hasn't done much since. He could barely hold a 0.900 save percentage last season.

Deslauriers was put behind a terrible Falcons defense last season and took tonnes of shots. He always comes out of the gate fast but he always seems to wear down. As a backup he's not gonna have to play as many games and he can play the way he does at the beginning of each season for a full season with the Oilers.

Roloson was put behind a terrible Oilers defense in 2006-07 but this season, Garon proved that he was better than Roloson.

So who is the better goalie?

I truly believe that Deslauriers will have a higher save percentage (in around the same number of games as Roloson) but Roloson could win more games.

Roloson is a game-breaker. When we really need to win, Roli can turn it on and deliver a 35 save shutout. But if we don't really need to win, he lets in 4 goals on 25 shots. Because not only did he take us, the Oilers to the Cup Finals but he also led a mediocre Minnesota Wild team to the Conference Championships a little while back. He would be a great pickup at the deadline for a lot of teams that are looking to go far in the playoffs.

But in my opinion, Roloson needs to show up every night, and he's failed to do so. Therefore, Deslauriers should rightfully take his spot in the Oilers lineup. It's about time we developed a goaltender rather than just signing a backup and hoping he works out or trading for a mediocre goaltender and hope he works out.

Since the Tommy Salo era (pre-2002 Olympics), we haven't had a legit #1 guy until Garon. We don't want to have to keep giving up assets to get goaltenders, so we might as well give Deslauriers a chance to develop.

Right now, if I'm the Oilers, Roloson is as good as gone. He should be sitting in the press box on MOST nights. But that's just my opinion.

Guillaume Lefevbre

This guy came out of the LNAH and has made it further than former 1st rounder Ryan O'Marra, former 2nd rounder Colin MacDonald and many others. He's made it pretty far in Oilers camp. He looked pretty impressive in the game against Florida and put up a legit fight. What more would you expect from a guy from the LNAH?

Is the Penner-Pisani-Moreau Line Really Working?

To me, this line isn't really working. They don't have a real center and they just don't have chemistry together. I would much rather see someone else in the middle and move Moreau down to the fourth line.

As I said earlier, we could turn this third line into an offensive line by adding Rob Schremp into the mix.

Penner-Schremp-Pisani

Their obvious weakness would be speed but it would be an okay offensive threat. If you inserted Pouliot or Potulny into the center position it could be used as a checking line with okay offense.

But Penner-Pisani-Moreau is a little bit of a mismatch. Pisani is a decent grinder that could potentially score 20 goals. Penner is a big guy and can be an offensive threat IF he's put with the right players. And Moreau is a good energy player that can be an effective checker.

In my opinion, Penner is almost useless if he doesn't have a good playmaker.

So, here is what I hope will happen. MacT will have to split up the Kid Line at some point in time. Penner and Gagner already had chemistry from the powerplay. It seems reasonable that a Penner-Gagner-Nilsson line could be a legit scoring threat. And a Cogliano-Brodziak-Pisani line could be a legit checking line which can pitch in a goal here and there.

As I have said before, I see no reason to split up Penner from Horcoff and Hemsky because of their chemistry. In my perfect world as of right now, MacT would ice this lineup on opening night:

Cole-Horcoff-Hemsky
Penner-Gagner-Nilsson
Cogliano-Brodziak-Pisani
Moreau-Pouliot/Brule-Stortini/Pouliot/Potulny
Brule/Potulny/Pouliot (only one of them)

Souray-Staios
Visnovsky-Smid
Gilbert-Grebeshkov
Strudwick

Garon
Roloson
Deslauriers

Brule should be sent down to make room for three goaltenders as he does not have to clear waivers. But we will see what MacTavish and Tambellinni decide to do.

25.9.08

First to Third, The Dustin Penner Story

The offersheet to former Anaheim Duck, Dustin Penner was one of the most controversial moves in the 2007 off season. He was brought into the Oilers organization to bring some offense as well as some size. He lead the Oilers in goals last season while on the first line with Shawn Horcoff and Ales Hemsky. But this year he finds himself on the third line, with the emergence of Andrew Cogliano and Sam Gagner, as well as their chemistry, Penner seems to be the odd man out.

He is supposed to be on the 3rd line with Ethan Moreau and Fernando Pisani. No real playmakers.

But look at his statistics closer. Out of the 23 goals he scored, 13 of them were on the powerplay. And this season I fully expect him to be on the first powerplay unit with Ales Hemsky and one of, Shawn Horcoff or Sam Gagner.

So will I expect a decrease in points. Likely. Will I expect a decrease in goals. Likely not. If Penner can play as well as he did at the end of last season he should at least be in contention to be the first line winger that he was brought in to be.

24.9.08

Roy't to Do

Matthieu Roy is probably the #8 defenseman on the Edmonton Oilers' depth chart and he is on a one-way contract. If the Oilers only plan on carrying 12 forwards, he has a chance of staying in the pressbox. But with all the talented forwards coming into this camp, there will be at least 13 forwards by the end of training camp. So where does Roy fit? What's his trade value at?

Probably quite low but a team like the Blue Jackets might take him as a cheap number six/seven defenseman. But he will more than likely clear waivers. He is on a one-way contract, which is unattractive to a lot of the lower spending teams, and the only thing he has done in the NHL is get injured.

What do we do?

He is a good guy to have for depth purposes so I would hope he could clear waivers to play in Springfield. Otherwise, it's not really a big loss of he gets claimed off waivers, or traded for a prospect/pick.

21.9.08

Would Deslauriers Really Clear Waivers?

I have been discussing how the three goalie system could work against players such as Rob Schremp and Gilbert Brule. It could also work against the Oilers. Marc Pouliot or Ryan Potulny could get outperformed in camp. They would respectively be 13/14 on the Oilers depth chart, but would have to get sent down to the minors through waivers, and possibly get claimed. We have invested 4 years of development in Jeff Deslauriers, we will not give him up for nothing. But do teams really want him?

He has yet to play a single second in the NHL. He wasn't THE BEST goalie in the AHL, although he was up there. JDD got a huge workload in the AHL, but just sitting him up with the big club could really hurt his development.

We really do have a goaltender controversy now. It's not like in 2005 where it was, Conklin or Markkanen. It's who's going to be the backup. The old experienced veteran, or the new kid on the block.

I'm obviously not a GM so I would have no clue if JDD would clear waivers. But I really think he would. He's on a one-way deal and hasn't proven that he is better than any other backup in the NHL.

So what do we do? We have to trade one of JDD or Roloson. For me, it would be Roloson. This year, could be a good year for rebuilding. We could have a lot more prospects develop in the NHL, and in 2-3 years prove to be contenders. But is their a market for Roloson? Doubt it. In an ideal situation we would trade one of them for a draft pick and life goes on.

The Oilers need to waive Roloson. Hopefully he gets claimed by LA in hopes they can reach the cap floor. If not, put him on re-entry waivers, then I'm sure someone will take him. $1.8M for a proven goaltender with playoff experience, a lot of teams will jump on that, like Chicago (looking for a cheaper backup). We get the monkey off our back and it's all good.

The Annual Rob Schremp Debate

Is he good enough to make the team? This has been the question since Rob Schremp was 19-years-old. Obviously, that year he got sent back to the OHL. It gave him the inside track when he was 20-years-old but he still couldn't make it. Last season, he was recovering from a knee injury but got a good two games and around five minutes of ice time last season after an early season call-up.

This year. No injury. No attitude (apparently). All conditioning. Rob was training extremely hard this offseason so he could make the team. But what are his chances at making it?

The competition seems tough this season. With Ryan Potulny, Marc Pouliot, Zack Stortini and Gilbert Brule also looking for a spot on the roster, it doesn't look easy for Schremp. All of them have legit NHL experience, something Schremp doesn't have. So does adding Schremp make our team better?

Rob Schremp has great hands, is a great passer and has a cannon. If the Oilers did not have a few powerplay specialists, I would likely say he makes our team better. But with Visnovsky, Souray, Hemsky and Gagner, Schremp looks like a nobody. He's not really a gritty player like, Brule and isn't exactly the most responsible in his own end (Pouliot and Potulny are both great in their own ends), and he's not as physical as Brule or Stortini, everyone else in contention for a spot is faster than him, with the exception of Stortini, but Stortini is already in the Oilers' good books with his work ethic. With the addition of Erik Cole, it doesn't look as if we will need more scoring. So what does Schremp need to do to make the team?

Well, he has to prove he's not a sieve defensively. If he's okay defensively but plays a great offensive game he will make MacTavish think twice. But where does he fit? He would essentially replace Horcoff on the 2nd powerplay unit. But would he be on the 4th line? Or would he turn the 3rd line into another secondary scoring line.

If he were to make the roster, he would really have to impress, in my opinion. He doesn't have an edge on Potulny or Stortini or even Brule. But he would be a nice addition to the lineup.

The line combo I see him on is:

Penner-Schremp-Pisani
or Schremp-Penner-Pisani

Either way I think that they are a good mix of everything.
Penner would provide the strength and goal scoring ability that would complement Schremp.
Schremp would provide set-ups for both Penner and Pisani.
And Pisani will provide a solid defensive presence as a forward as well as take feeds from Schremp possibly netting him 20 goals.

It looks good, but with Potulny and Pouliot both on one-ways and both having to clear waivers, as well as the Oilers likely starting the year with three goalies. It would only leave us with 6 defensemen. But I believe we have 7 NHL-calibre defensemen. The only one that doesn't have to clear waivers is Smid. And he wasn't the most impressive last season. Strudwick provides some toughness if Stortini isn't playing.

All the pieces would seem to fall in place. But the three goalie system really limits the Oilers in terms of skaters.

I hope that Rob will make the team, to give him some experience and to upgrade our secondary scoring as well as our powerplay.

19.9.08

What Do the Oilers Need to Add?

That comment about a training camp invite really got me thinking. What could the Oilers possibly need? They have an abundance of top-six forwards, they've got 7 capable NHL defensemen including two elite offensive dmen. So the last part is goaltending. The Oilers have made it clear they want to start the year with three goaltenders. There aren't any good goalies in the free agent pool. So what could we possibly need?

Lots of fans may say we need that star shutdown defenseman. But those guys don't grow on trees. We would likely have to develop one. Others say we need an experienced center, who is reliable in his own end and can take key faceoffs. Perreault has been taken out of the equation according to Lowe (and personally I don't think the addition of Perreault would help this team a whole bunch). Bryan Smolinski is another guy, personally, I think Smolinski improves the team right now, but I also believe a kid can step up to the plate.

We passed up a chance at getting star, Zach Parise for Marc Pouliot and JF Jacques. I would hope Pouliot could at least develop into a 3rd line center. And judging by the way he played at the end of last season he could be a late bloomer. But that's a bit optimistic. However, last season Pouliot proved to me and the Oilers organization that he is a legit NHL player. His faceoff percentage was 47.7% in very few tries last season. So he will need to improve his faceoff ability. However, he can play the wing as well. Pouliot can play on the PK if needed but we have a lot of quality PK'ers so he likely won't get any time there. But it proves he's reliable defensively.

Kyle Brodziak was a late round, 19-year-old choice by the Oilers. Smart move as he scored 14 goals last season, which I believe could've been 17-18 goals if he hadn't missed so many open nets, or hit so many posts. His 51.5% faceoff percentage is impressive. Considering how he played center the whole season, he did well. That percentage is higher than Horcoff's. So, he seems like a prime candidate to play that 3rd/4th line center role. He is going to be on one of the PK unit's and is very reliable defensively.

The hole of shutdown defenseman will likely not be solved this year. Steve Staios is our closest thing to shutdown dman. He's not terrible at it, but he's not getting any younger and he's not getting any faster. Tom Gilbert and Denis Grebeshkov are reliable defensively, but aren't the "shutdown guys." Perhaps, in a few years the Oilers will develop Theo Peckham into that shutdown guy. But right now we don't have it.

To answer the question, what do we need to add? Well, a shutdown defenseman would be nice. Someone like a Komisarek or a Volchenkov. But we're never gonna get one. So, we've got to develop someone.

Time will tell whether or not this team really needs to add something or if the new NHL favours the Visnovsky's of the world and high tempo, puck-moving defensemen. It's not as if all of our players are terrible defensively. Gilbert, Grebeshkov and Staios can all play against top lines.

Who Is Lowe Eyeing?

While in an interview with Dan Tencer, Kevin Lowe revealed he was eyeing a certain player who he would like to invite to camp. It was not Yanic Perreault. So who could it be? Bryan Smolinski? Martin Lapointe? Murray? So who could it be?

The Oilers do not have a gaping hole needed to be fixed. There's enough healthy competition at camp. So who would it be?

After Day 1 this mystery person has not shown up. So maybe he's looking for a contract and Lowe/Tambellinni isn't willing to give it.

Schremp Turns Head on Day 1

Rob Schremp was a first round draft pick and an OHL AllStar. Now, he's a top minor league scorer. Out of the top 10 scorers in the AHL Schremp was the youngest. But is he ready to take the step to the NHL. Since being drafted he's played a grand total of three NHL games. This season, there seems to be one or two openings in camp. A 3rd/4th line slot. Or a seat in the pressbox. I have pencilled in Potulny and Pouliot as the 2 forwards to fill that role. And if the Oilers wish to carry 14 forwards and 3 goalies, they can only carry 6 defenceman. All of which, who have to clear waivers except Ladislav Smid. Which may give me an impression of a new lineup:

Cole-Horcoff-Hemsky
Cogliano-Gagner-Nilsson
Penner-Schremp-Pisani
Moreau-Brodziak-Pouliot
Stortini, Potulny

Visnovsky-Staios
Gilbert-Grebeshkov
Souray-Strudwick

Garon
Roloson
Deslauriers

16.9.08

Stortini

Is Zack Stortini a real NHL player?

After a solid finish to last season Stortini gained himself a new 3-year contract, 1-way. But who says he's gonna earn all that money. In these past two seasons he's wow'd the Oilers and their coaching staff with his work ethic and bravery. Not everyone wants to play every night, to only find out they have to fight Derek Boogaard. But has Stortini really shown any signs he really belongs in the NHL skill wise. He's no heavyweight, and could definately use some power skating lessons so what has he done that gives him a spot in camp this season? Sure, he delivers the odd hit here and there but so many other NHL players can do that. Does he really protect our stars like, Hemsky and Gagner? Or is he just an ECHL skilled player with an elite NHL work ethic?

This is not a bash-fest but I don't believe that he will just be handed a spot in camp. We have so many talented youngsters that could take his place. And the addition of Jason Strudwick adds a more legit fighter than Stortini. So, where will he fit in? With Ryan Potulny and Marc Pouliot both on one-way contracts, competition will be stiff. Both Potulny and Pouliot have the ability to play on the penalty kill and powerplay (we saw this at the end of last year, though I don't believe they'll see any time there) and both are solid defensively. Both can play the role of 3rd line center as well as 4th line winger. They can both pitch in an occasional goal to spark the team.

Stortini can hug his way out of fights, essentially only getting the other teams heavyweight out of the game for the next 5 minutes.

But this just raises the burning question...

Do the Oilers really need a heavyweight enforcer (like Georges Laraque, who we let go for some reason)?

Yes. Now obviously letting go of BGL was a mistake. He's a guy that is an NHL player, without fighting and a heavyweight enforcer. But I believe our team toughness is underrated. Guys like Moreau and Souray will drop the gloves occasionally and can give punishing hits to opponents' top lines. They are both above average NHL players, who both play more than just a regular shift. Jason Strudwick is an NHL vet, and has been in the league all these years not because he's the best player but he's definately not the worst. He can play forward and defense and will not hesitate to drop the gloves.

With Strudwick, does Stortini really deserve a spot on the roster?

15.9.08

The Ryan Smyth Trade

It was a dark day in Oilers Nation. The Oilers had traded Ryan Smyth to the New York Islanders for 2 prospects and a 1st round draft pick. At the time the Oilers had been in the middle of the basement and 9th place.

According to many sources, it was a difference of $100K-$200K. But for Lowe, it seemed like the right move to make.

Over a year and a half after this deal was made, what do Oilers fans think? Smyth played 20 games for the Islanders, lead them to 8th place in the East and an exit of the first round of the playoffs. Giving the Oilers the 15th overall draft choice in the draft. Robert Nilsson played a few games in the minors having great chemistry with another Oilers top prospect, Rob Schremp. But it was Nilsson that got the call-up, not Schremp. And in those games Nilsson wow'd a few Oiler fans. In the draft, the Oilers chose Alex Plante with that pick. With big names like Alex Cherepanov and Angelo Esposito still on the board, it may have upsetted some Oilers fans.

The following season, the trade didn't look good at all, at the beginning. Robert Nilsson had a slow start to the season going down to the minors for a few games. Later getting called up. Ryan O'Marra, the 2-time World Jr. gold medalist got sent down from the AHL down to the ECHL. But he later came back to the Falcons in the AHL. During the later part of the season, Nilsson showed what he could do and wow'd Oilers fans once again. O'Marra wow'd some Springfield fans as well as the coaching staff later on in the season. But, Plante had an offseason, injuring himself, losing his powerplay time, losing some even strength time.

Now, how does the trade look? Excellent. It seemed like a bad deal at the time, but Lowe was patient and showed us how badly we ripped off the Islanders. O'Marra is still yet to set foot in the NHL, but he looks like a promising young prospect and possibly challenging for a spot on the roster as soon as this season. Plante has recently requested a trade from his junior club, likely giving him more powerplay time on another team. But by the way, Nilsson played at the end of last season, Nilsson for Smyth, straight up would look like a good deal. The only part of this deal I question, is Plante. And that's not exactly Lowe's fault, after all, he's not really in charge of scouting.

Should We Stay or Should We Go?

Since the late 90s to 2005, the Oilers never really re-built, or went for it all. In 2006, we saw that Kevin Lowe wanted to put a contender on the ice, he traded for Chris Pronger and Michael Peca. Peca may not have lived up to all the hype, but he did a very solid job, and Pronger exceeded all expectations. During that year, the Oilers had struggles in goal and in terms of defensive and offensive depth. So in January of 2006, Lowe traded for Jaroslav Spacek and Dick Tarnstrom. Both moves were absolute steals. So the only big question mark was goaltending. And on trade deadline 2006, KLowe traded for Dwayne Roloson. Giving up a 1st round pick and a conditional 3rd seemed like a big price to pay at the time. Considering how a lot of fans weren't sure of whether or not we'd actually make the playoffs. Then we traded, Reasoner, Yan Stastny and a 2nd for Sergei Samsonov. Seemed like a steal at the time. Considering how Reasoner was a 4th liner, and Rem Murray had replaced him and Yan Stastny was just another AHLer, the only thing of significant value was the 2nd rounder. And that turned out to be Milan Lucic. Of course, we edged out a Cloutier-less Canucks to make the playoffs that year in the second last game of the season. And ended up going all the way to the Cup finals. But we decided to go for it that year.

In the 2006-2007 season we were forced to give up several major pieces of the 06 Western Champions. Losing Chris Pronger was a major blow. But during the year, we played okay. Hovering around 9th being at 10th or 11th, this year KLowe had no idea what to do. Negotiations with fan fav Ryan Smyth were going bad, and we traded him. Since the trade we won 1 game for the rest of the season. Giving us the 6th overall pick in the draft. Giving us Sam the Man. In that season we decided to re-build.

But the following off-season was a head scratcher. Having major young pieces like, Rob Schremp, Sam Gagner, Andrew Cogliano, Robert Nilsson and Ryan O'Marra seemed like a good core to build around. With budding superstar, Ales Hemsky not yet at his prime it seemed perfect for another year of re-building. We traded for young puck mover, Joni Pitkanen. We overpaid for Sheldon Souray, in order to put Edmonton on the map for free agents. But the offersheet to Dustin Penner. Of course, we knew Dustin was a great young player on the Cup winning Ducks, but the cost, a 1st, a 2nd and a 3rd. So were we going for it or were we still re-building? Giving up a 1st would not exactly help your rebuilding cause. But in an interview during the year KLowe said he thinks we were somewhere in the middle. Nilsson, Gagner and Cogliano all made the roster and it looked as if we were gonna have a very competitive roster.

But injuries began to pile up. The teams below us began to rise. And soon enough we were finding ourselves digging out of the basement. But a late season surge got us in 9th place, almost enough to get ourselves a playoff spot.

This offseason, we traded for Lubomir Visnovsky and Erik Cole. Two proven veterans. So do we plan on being contenders this year? Or be mediocre? Or still rebuilding? With these two vets showing our younger guys how it's done.

So you've gotta let me know. Should I stay or should I go?!

13.9.08

Leafs Fans Get Fingered for the Next 4 Years

Jeff Finger was an AHL journeyman. Last season was his first full year as an NHL defenseman. And his rookie season, was at 27 years-old. Better late than never. Because on July 1st, Maple Leafs GM Cliff Fletcher gave the Finger to Leafs fans and signed him to a $14M/4 year deal after being healthy scratched by the Avalanche in the playoffs.

I feel like the Oilers are not strong enough defensively in terms of their dmen. But Jeff Finger would've been a good fit, in my opinion. At the right price he would have solidified our D. If the Oilers felt that they needed toughness Jeff would be the guy. He brings a physical presence, as well as can shutdown opponents. Of course, $3.5M is a little drastic, but $2.5M-$3M might have been enough to lure him in, if we could convince him we were contenders. Staios is making $2.7M a year and is an aging vet. Finger is in his prime and if he can prove to be a shutdown guy that can add toughness to the roster he could be great for the Oilers.

But it's too bad Kevin Lowe and Daryl Katz had other plans. As they were too busy trying to get Hossa and Jagr to come to Edmonton.

Bryan Smolinski?

Could Bryan Smolinski be a good fit for the Oilers? At the right price. He's still unsigned as a free agent and I'm sure he hasn't gotten too many offers. How could it hurt the Oilers if they gave him an invite to TC? He made $2M last season but after a not so good offensive campaign he will likely take a pay cut. Throw Smolinski on a line with Moreau and Pisani and you have a hell of a shutdown line. Not only can they shutdown the oppositions top lines but they can also pitch in a goal every now and then. Look at Pisani for example, he scored 18 goals on the 3rd line in 2005-2006 before the cup run. Last year after he missed a significant amount of time still managed to score 13 goals.

Smolinski seems like the perfect fit for now. I don't know if Pouliot or Brodziak can play a shutdown role, and we seem to need another good penalty killer up front. A one-year deal for Smolinski and the Oilers could be talking division champs.

Was the Penner Offer Sheet Worth It?

It's been over a year since the Oilers had acquired Dustin Penner from the Stanley Cup Champions, Anaheim Ducks via the offersheet. The question now is, was it worth the 3 draft picks? It was reported that the Ducks had tried to offer Penner around $2M, but they had serious cap problems. Having to re-sign everyone after a cup run can take up a lot of cap space. And considering Anaheim had an internal budget, it left Dustin Penner vulnerable for an offersheet.

Lowe had tried previously to get star players, through the offersheet. He offered Buffalo Sabres sniper, Thomas Vanek, a whooping $50M/7 years. The compensation would be 4 1st round draft picks. But Buffalo quickly matched that after losing stars Danny Briere and Chris Drury. He apparently also wanted to talk to the New Jersey Devils about their young star, Zach Parise. A guy the Oilers could have drafted in 2003 if they had not traded the pick to New Jersey to move down and get Marc Pouliot and JF Jacques.

When I first heard about the offersheet, I thought to myself, what were the Oilers thinking? It's not as if we couldn't have tried to trade someone for Penner? But we ended p giving up 3 draft picks, a 1st, a 2nd and a 3rd. The thing that bothered me was the 1st. What if we finished dead last in the league? Anaheim could be laughing.

However, it gave the Oilers great incentive to make a strong playoff push late in the season. And a possible top 10 pick, the Ducks were hoping for turned into the 12th overall pick.

Penner at 24-years-old scored 29 goals as a rookie. Now 24-years-old may seem late for a rookie but not a lot of people can become 30 goal scorers. As a 25-years-old still scored over 20-goals after a very slow start to the season. I believe Penner is a big, strong forward that can score goals. Those kind of players don't grow on trees. If the Ducks can find a mid-1st rounder that can pot 30-goals a season at 24-years-old, I'll say they won. But the 2nd and 3rd round picks don't mean much to me. After the 1st round the selection isn't that great and you're just guessing if the player is gonna be good or not.

If you think about it, what if the Oilers never made an offersheet to Penner? Would we be in contention for Stamkos? Maybe. But I still think we would be around the 10-slot. But to say that the Penner offersheet wasn't worthwhile you'd have to say that Cody Hodgson will be a perennial 30-goal scorer at age 25.

Has Gagner Set the Bar Too High?

It was the great debate on Draft Day 2007. Voracek or Gagner? Voracek had been ranked as high as number one at one point in the season. Gagner was the youngest player in the draft, played on the Canadian World Jr. team as a 17-year-old and lit up the OHL with fellow London Knight, Patrick Kane. A lot of people said that Gagner would be number one in 2008, if only he had been born a few weeks later. The end result. "With the 6th overall pick in the NHL Entry Draft, the Edmonton Oilers are proud to choose, from the London Knights, Sam Gagner." Since then Voracek has played well in the Q and Sam has played well in the NHL. But it'll take 5 years to determine if the Oilers made the right pick.

Before the 2007-2008 NHL season, a Canada-Russia Super Series had taken place. The best hockey players in Canada and Russia, who were under 20 played in it. One of those people happened to be Sam Gagner. Fresh off being drafted by the Edmonton Oilers, Sam scored 15 points in 8 games against what was supposedly the second best team in junior hockey.

Shortly after the Super Series, Gagner came to Oilers rookie camp. After rookie camp, he went to training camp, so by the time he hit TC he was in peak form. Sam impressed coach Craig MacTavish and got Kevin Lowe to sign him to a contract. During the 10-game tryout stint for Gagner he impressed even further and the team decided to keep him for the full year.

The year was full of ups and downs for Gagner. Ups were the spectacular highlight reel shootout goals, downs being the healthy scratches. But overall he performed very well.

Last June during the draft the Oilers held the #22 overall pick. They did not feel the need to move up and chose small, shifty, sniper Jordan Eberle of the Regina Pats.

Since then, a lot of fans have suggested the possibility of Eberle making the jump to the NHL as per Gagner. The simple answer to these questions is no. For many reasons. Gagner was a top 10 pick and the youngest player in his draft year, still managed to play for Canada at the World Jrs. as a 17-year-old and the Oilers were in a rebuilding stage when Gagner made the team. It's not like last season the Oilers had a whole bunch of great young talent on the NHL roster. But since making the team Gagner scored 49 points in 79 games (very impressive for an 18-year-old) and proved he could take over the top unit on the powerplay over Horcoff.

In conclusion, I still believe Eberle is three to four years away from setting foot in the NHL. He needs to get bigger and stronger before he can even play a game in the AHL and has to prove he can be a force in the WHL.

12.9.08

Expectations for 2008-2009: Forwards

I'm being EXTREMELY optimistic for the coming season in case you haven't been able to tell already.

Ales Hemsky-can he break out and become a superstar? My answer, yes. I like him a lot though.

Projected numbers: 75 GP, 25G, 65A, 90 points

Shawn Horcoff-he has to prove last year wasn't a fluke. Just signed a big deal. Will he live up to the hype?

Projected numbers: 80 GP, 40G, 45A, 85 points

Dustin Penner-will he be on the 1st line or not? The MacBlender is likely to come out, he will see some time on the 1st line. But he strikes best on the powerplay where he should get 1st powerplay minutes.

Projected numbers: 80 GP, 30G, 30A, 60 points

Erik Cole-one of the premier power forwards in the NHL. Where does he fit in? He will be in the top six through out the year. Expect big things in his contract year.

Projected numbers: 65 GP, 30G, 40A, 70 points

Sam Gagner-had a sensational rookie campaign. He has to shake off a sophmore slump but will likely get first powerplay minutes. He could also get an upgrade in linemates but will the chemistry of the kid line be ruined? I think he has another great season this year.

Projected numbers: 80 GP, 15G, 45A, 60 points

Robert Nilsson-he was a main part of the Ryan Smyth deal. The shoes were big to fill and he had a little bit of a rollercoaster ride last season. Was in MacT's dog house for the first half of the year but hit his stride with Gagner and Cogliano. He has a new contract, let's see if he can exceed the expectations of that contract.

Projected numbers: 78 GP, 18G, 40A, 58 points

Andrew Cogliano-the comparisons to Todd Marchant are not very accurate in my opinion. As a 20-year-old rookie Cogliano scored 18 goals including 3 game-winners in OT. He will definately develop into at least a 20-goal scorer with great wheels and can occasionally kill a penalty or two.

Projected numbers: 80 GP, 22G, 35A, 57 points

Ethan Moreau-everyone says how last year we wouldve been better with Souray and Horcoff. They're both great players but they never really remember Moreau. Moreau has missed so much time in the past two seasons it's almost as if the team doesn't need him. But when Moreau is in the lineup he definately brings something to the table. He's a great penalty killer and can pitch in a goal every now and then. I hope to see a full season out of him but I'll be happy with 65 games.

Projected numbers: 65 GP, 12G, 18A, 30 points

Fernando Pisani-his contract looked bad when it was first signed. A 3rd-liner who had one good playoff run. The fact of the matter is, is that he scored 18 goals that season. A 20-goal scorer is worth a lot to a team, especially if he can kill penalties. He is one of the most underrated players and I want to see big things.

Projected numbers: 78 GP, 17G, 25A, 32 points

Kyle Brodziak-had a great season last year. He had great chemistry with Stortini and Glencross but Glencross is no longer here. He scored 14 goals and hit about 12 posts. I can see him being a 20-goal scorer in the future as well as a solid penalty killer.

Projected numbers: 82 GP, 18G, 25A, 33 points

Zack Stortini-"Huggy Bear" isn't exactly the most skilled player in the league, or the best fighter. But he somehow manages to impress the Oilers coaches with his work ethic. He definately needs to work on his stickhandling, shooting and speed (the 3 s'). But he can lay out the body and provide a spark when needed. With the addition of Strudwick he might get a birds eye view of the game more often than last year.

Projected numbers: 65 GP, 1G, 2A, 3 points

Who does the last roster spot go to?

Marc Pouliot-during the tail end of last season Pouliot showed a little bit of his 1st round form. Deemed a bust by a lot of Oilers fans, Pouliot is slowly moving his way up the Oilers depth chart and could see himself as the 3rd line center on opening night. I have never been too high on Pouliot but I believe he is a legitimate NHL player and his upside could be as high as a 2nd-3rd line center (depending on the team).

Projected numbers: 65 GP, 10G, 15A, 25 points

Ryan Potulny-I don't believe he will clear waivers and he has proven he can play at an NHL level. It gives me reason to believe he will be the 13th forward at the end of camp. The Oilers gave up 2nd-3rd pairing AHL dman Danny Syvret for him, so if he's the 13th forward it'll show to be a great deal for the Oilers.

Projected numbers: 25 GP, 6G, 8A, 14 points

Too lazy to italicize and bold.

Expectations for 2008-2009: Defensemen

Lubomir Visnovsky-one of the premier offensive defensemen in the NHL. Had a little bit of an offseason last year but will definately help out our powerplay and overall goals for. If you can't tell by the numbers below I have high hopes for Visnovsky.

Projected numbers: 78 GP, 20G, 40A, 60 points

Sheldon Souray-the chronic shoulder problem. The Visnovsky-Souray pairing on the powerplay is one of the best if not the best. Souray can definately be a very solid defenseman but he needs to stay healthy.

Projected numbers: 58 GP, 15G, 30A, 45 points

Tom Gilbert-fresh off signing a new 6-year/$24M deal, Tom has some big expectations. He played extremely well in my opinion last year. He will still be on the 2nd powerplay unit and will get points off jumping in plays. He may not reach the expectations $4M commands this year but two or three years down the road he will outperform that.

Projected numbers: 75 GP, 15G, 25A, 40 points

Denis Grebeshkov-formerly known as Garbagekov, he has taken out all the trash and proved to be a very good defenseman. After being traded for Marc-Andre Bergeron and a 3rd, the expectations weren't exactly set very high. At the beginning of the season, he looked terrible, but as the season wore on he adapted to the North American game and started showing what he was made of.

Projected numbers: 80 GP, 5G, 25A, 30 points

Steve Staios-Steady Steve. At some points of last season he didn't exactly look to steady. He's a veteran on the team and one of the best penalty killers on the team. At the Worlds he was one of Canada's best penalty killers and I expect him to play a similar role this season. Along with holding a steady defensive presence with one of the offensive defensemen.

Projected numbers: 70 GP, 4G, 10A, 14 points

Ladislav Smid-former 1st rounder, traded for Chris Pronger. Big expectations for a 20-year -ld. But back then he met them as he made a very weak Oilers squad and played surprisingly well. However, last season he didn't make the Oilers on a slightly better defensive squad. After being sent down to the AHL it didn't take long before the Oilers called him up due to injuries. He ended up playing 65 games with constant injuries to Souray and Pitkanen. He's now 22-years-old, has 2 NHL seasons under his belt, and proven he can play at the NHL level. Is this the year that Smid takes a big leap forward in his development and proves to be a top-4 defenseman or will he just stay as the number 6 defenseman?

Projected numbers: 70 GP, 4G, 8A, 12 points

Jason Strudwick-just another journeyman brought in to toughen up this defensive core. He's a proven NHL defenseman and can take a regular shift as well as get in a tussle to spark the team. From what I've heard, a good guy in the room. He should just be a quick fix, and give prospects like Peckham time to develop in the minors.

Projected numbers: 25 GP, 0G, 1A, 1 point

Overall not a bad defensive core, but I worry about the team defensively. However we should be able to move the puck up better thus improving our forwards' stats.

Expectations for 2008-2009: Goaltenders

Mathieu Garon-Last season Mathieu Garon stole the starting job from Dwayne Roloson. This year he will go into camp with the starting job. He had a 0.913 save percentage and a 2.66 goals against average. Looks like a legit starter to me. But he only played 47 games. A lot of that had to do with him starting the year as backup but if he had played a full(er) season what would his numbers have looked like? Maybe not as good but still decent. This year is a contract year for Garon so I expect him to step up his play a little bit this year.

Projected numbers: 60 GP, 0.915 save %, 2.50 GAA

Dwayne Roloson-Since the 06 cup run Roloson has slowly been aging. Last year it showed, as he lost the starting job to Mathieu Garon. However, in the 06 cup run I believe he was playing over his head. 2006-2007 was really not a good measuring stick as the whole season was a disaster for the Oilers but he still played decent and was the best Oiler on a lot of nights. Now Oilers fans want to get rid of him after a bad year. I know he's not getting a lot better but is it really worth trading him? For what? A mid-low round draft pick. It's not as if the Oilers are tight on cap space and Roloson makes a decent backup. He almost carried the Oilers to the playoffs last year after Garon got injured (although he had a few bad games). Think about it this way. Roloson is underperforming his contract and Garon is overperforming his contract. So if you think as if their contracts are switched around both seem to have fair salaries.

Projected numbers: 12 GP, 0.900 save %, 3.00 GAA

Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers-Mathieu Garon took five years to develop into a backup. Of course he had a good 30 or so games of experience before. Deslauriers has taken four years but hasn't had a single second in the NHL. This year will likely be the year he gets some starts. But he has to prove to be a legitimate backup before everyone starts to come up with proposals to trade Roloson. However, I still believe he can be the future of goaltending for the Oilers, I believe he can be much like Garon and will some day be as good as him.

Compare these numbers:

Garon:

1998-1999 Fredericton Canadiens AHL 40 2,222 14 22 2 - 114 1,190 3 3.08
1999-2000 Quebec Citadelles AHL 53 2,884 17 28 3 - 149 1,463 2 3.10 .898
2000-2001 Canadiens 11 589 4 5 1 - 24 233 2 2.44 .897
2000-2001 Quebec Citadelles AHL 31 1,768 16 13 1 - 86 1,071 1 2.92 .920
2001-2002 Canadiens 5 260 1 4 0 - 19 147 0 4.37 .871
2001-2002 Quebec Citadelles AHL 50 2,988 21 15 12 - 136 1,658 2 2.73 .918
2002-2003 Canadiens 8 481 3 5 0 - 16 267 2 1.99 .940
2002-2003 Hamilton Bulldogs AHL 20 1,150 15 2 2 - 34 537 4 1.77 .937

Deslauriers:

2004-2005 Edmonton Roadrunners AHL 22 1,258 6 13 2 - 62 553 0 2.96 .888
2004-2005 Greenville Grrrowl ECHL 11 673 7 3 1 - 26 432 1 2.32 .940
2005-2006 Hamilton Bulldogs AHL 13 666 4 7 -
35
0 3.15
2005-2006 Greenville Grrrowl ECHL 6 335 2 4 -
17
0 3.05
2006-2007 Wilkes-Barre Penguins AHL 40 2,231 22 12 -
92 1,001 4 2.47 .908
2007-2008 Springfield Falcons AHL 57 0 26 23 -
147
0 2.90

Consider that Oilers only had 1 AHL affiliate before the Falcons, of cource side tracking Deslauriers development. However he has shown signs of brilliance in the AHL and we will have to see what he can do in the NHL.

Projected numbers: 10 gp, 0.910 save %, 3.00 GAA

11.9.08

Top 10 Prospects, September 08 Edition

10. Ryan O'Marra-good shot, good speed, great faceoff man, can bang bodies
9. Linus Omark-great stickhandler, great hockey sense, can score goals, very unpredictable to a defenceman, needs to work on 2-way play and is a little under-sized
8. Theo Peckham-NHL ready physically, can drop the gloves, doesn't make a lot of mistakes, needs to get faster
7. Devan Dubnyk-great size, great rebound control, sometimes lets in an easy goal
6. Jordan Eberle- great shooter, great with the puck, needs to get bigger, stronger, faster
5. Chris Vande Velde-good skater, can score, good 2-way player
4. Taylor Chorney-great skater, great puckmover, good defensively, lacks size
3. Rob Schremp-great offensive instincts, great shot, great passer, great stick handler, needs to work on skating and defensive play.
2. Riley Nash-great 2-way player, good stick handler, just needs to bulk up a little bit.
1. Jeff Petry-great skater, great shot, great defensively.

Missing the cut:
Alex Plante-had an offseason last year, injury prone but is massive and has a great shot, the 07 1st rounder was on the bubble but is in a very good prospect pool.
Cody Wild-doesn't know when to make offensive switch or defensive switch, however, a very good skater, great hands can jump into plays, can turn into a Tom Gilbert type player, would be in the top 10 on most other teams but in a very good prospect pool that the Oilers have.
Ryan Potulny-it was a toss-up between him and O'Marra but I don't believe he has the upside O'Marra has. He is definately good enough to be an NHL player and a year from now he won't be on a prospect list.
JF Jacques-I don't believe he has the upside O'Marra has, and he has a lot to prove at the NHL level. He can light up the AHL but that has translated into 0 points in the NHL.
Josef Hrabal-great skillset, has yet to play in North America
Bryan Lerg-small guy with a big heart, not sure he has the size and skillset (put together) to make the NHL
Liam Reddox-good agitator, can be put in any situation, probably has an NHL future ahead (4th line energy/checker)

My Projected Opening Night Lineup

Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky
Nilsson-Gagner-Cole
Cogliano-Pouliot-Pisani
Moreau-Brodziak-Stortini
Potulny

Call-ups: Schremp, Jacques, Brule

Visnovsky-Staios
Grebeshkov-Gilbert
Souray-Smid
Strudwick

Call-ups: Peckham, Chorney, Bisaillon

Garon
Roloson
Deslauriers

I believe in keeping the "Nintendo line" (P-H-H: one big guy, one medium sized guy and a skinny guy) because of their chemistry. Cole can play with two of the kids, I said Nilsson and Gagner cause they're more skilled but I think Cogliano will work as well. The reason behind that is "The Kid Line" could not play tough minutes. Cole can solidify that line, however if it ruins chemistry expect the MacBlender to be back. The only defensive pairing I really thought was reasonable was the Gilbert-Grebs pairing. The others were a defensive dman and an offensive dman together. However, I expect that to be mixed up every now and then. Of course there are going to be the three goalies as KP has mentioned. They don't believe Deslauriers will clear waivers.

TC Preview

Locks:

The Forwards:
Horcoff
Hemsky
Penner
Cole
Nilsson
Cogliano
Gagner
Moreau
Brodziak
Pisani

Total: 10

The Defencemen:
Visnovsky
Gilbert
Souray
Staios
Grebeshkov

Total: 5

The Goaltenders:
Garon

Total: 1

Total Locks:16

On the bubble:

The Forwards:
Stortini
Pouliot
Potulny
Schremp
Brule
O'Marra
Jacques

Total: 7

The Defencemen:
Smid
Strudwick
Peckham
Chorney
Roy

Total: 5

The Goaltenders:
Deslauriers
Roloson

Total: 2

On the bubble: 14

Total: 30

Maximum Allowed on Roster after TC: 23

The Oilers have stated that they would like to keep three goalies after training camp. Only making room for one extra forward and one extra defenceman.


Other notables at TC:
Spurgeon
Eberle
Kytnar
Huxley
Reddox

Bisaillon
Wild
Plante
Hrabal
Bina